Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Rochester MN
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Rochester MN
Issued by: National Weather Service La Crosse |
Updated: 5:29 am CDT Jun 27, 2025 |
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Today
 Patchy Fog then Partly Sunny
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Tonight
 Partly Cloudy
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Saturday
 Slight Chance T-storms
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Saturday Night
 Chance T-storms then Showers Likely
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Sunday
 Chance T-storms then Showers Likely
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Sunday Night
 Chance Showers
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Monday
 Sunny
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Monday Night
 Clear
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Tuesday
 Sunny
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Hi 77 °F |
Lo 61 °F |
Hi 87 °F |
Lo 71 °F |
Hi 88 °F |
Lo 65 °F |
Hi 83 °F |
Lo 62 °F |
Hi 80 °F |
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Today
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Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph. |
Tonight
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable. |
Saturday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. South wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. |
Saturday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. South wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Sunday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. Southwest wind around 7 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. |
Sunday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10pm, then a chance of showers between 10pm and 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Monday
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Sunny, with a high near 83. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. |
Monday Night
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Clear, with a low around 62. West wind 6 to 8 mph. |
Tuesday
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Sunny, with a high near 80. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. |
Tuesday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 61. West wind 3 to 6 mph. |
Wednesday
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Sunny, with a high near 82. Northwest wind around 6 mph. |
Wednesday Night
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. |
Thursday
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A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. South wind 5 to 8 mph. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Rochester MN.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
513
FXUS63 KARX 271040
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
540 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather expected today with clouds decreasing this
afternoon.
- Warmer temperatures are expected this weekend. Strong to
severe storms are possible Saturday night and Sunday.
- Drier conditions expected next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025
Today
We finally get some dry weather today as low pressure moves
east and allows upper ridging and high pressure to build their
way into the upper Midwest. However, low level saturation and
low clouds upstream indicate the low clouds over us will linger
through the morning hours as said low pressure departs, but
begin to clear up in the afternoon.
Warmer Temperatures and Strong to Severe Storms this Weekend
The brief ridging today continues into Saturday allowing for
southerly flow and low level warm air advection. 925hPa
temperatures climb to 24-26C over much of the area on Saturday.
With very little variation in the location of the 24C isotherm
in the 25th-75th percentile spread, there is high confidence in
the temperature forecast Saturday where most areas should reach
the mid to upper 80s with heat indices in the low 90s. There is
less confidence in the temperature forecast on Sunday given the
influence of expected convection.
Instability builds across the Upper Mississippi River Valley
Saturday afternoon under the aforementioned southerly flow.
While it`s still a little far away for a solution from the CAMs,
global deterministic models depict an MCS developing across
Minnesota Saturday and possibly moving into southeastern
Minnesota to west-central Wisconsin Saturday night before
weakening. Damaging winds would be the primary threat.
Instability is then progged to develop across our area
again Sunday, with a mean SBCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg noted in
the 26.12z LREF. Deep layer shear doesn`t appear to be ideal for
more organized convection however, generally only 15-25kts,
with the stronger shear lying to our north. Despite this,
forcing via a surface boundary moving through the region should
be enough for storms to make use of the instability with
damaging wind gusts and large hail possible, in agreement with
the CSU Machine Learning Probabilities, which highlight a
15-30% probability of these hazards as well as a Slight Risk
from the SPC.
Drier Next Week
With northwest flow expected to return next week, drier air
will be ushered into the region, thus favoring drier weather.
However, several shortwaves will traverse the mean flow during
this timeframe, so despite the drier air in place, bouts of
precipitation are still possible, generally a 10-20% chance on
any given day.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025
MVFR to IFR (with pockets of LIFR) ceilings this morning
gradually lift through the day to MVFR before scattering out by
sunset. Fog is likely to form overnight with visibilities
falling to IFR/LIFR in favored locales, especially along and
east of the Mississippi River. Winds back to the northwest by
midday at around 10 kts, becoming light and variable overnight.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Skow
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