Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

244
FXUS63 KARX 301042
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
542 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms should occur across portions of the
  area today, although the chance for these to impact any
  specific location are around 50%. A severe wind gust, while
  not impossible, is highly unlikely (<5%).

- Wednesday through next Sunday all have the potential for
  additional showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the
  afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Convection continues today:

07z WV satellite shows an upper trough sliding over eastern ND with
a lead disturbance present ahead of this in W MN. A broken line of
nocturnal convection is ongoing ahead of this lead disturbance with
this a bit west of the Twin Cities metro as of this writing. At the
surface, light winds and clear skies in combination with plentiful
surface moisture from recent rains have led to patchy fog and
stratus developing.

This morning into early this afternoon, expect the ongoing axis of
broken convection ahead of the lead disturbance to sweep east
through the CWA. Following this, a second round of spotty convection
should move through during the later afternoon into the evening as
the main body of the upper trough shifts eastward. Confidence is
pretty high that showers and thunderstorms will track through the
region but low on exactly where/when these will occur. Limiting
factor for both coverage and severe potential will be instability
with CAPE profiles becoming notably skinnier than the past several
days as, while 60s dewpoints remain, robust moist advection to the
region looks to end today as flow through the column becomes west-
northwesterly. Additionally, lingering cloud cover from the first
round of convection will likely hamper insolation and thus limit
destabilization ahead of the late afternoon hours. That said, given
amount of shear to work with (30-35 kts of 0-6km bulk shear per
30.00z GFS) and progged DCAPE of close to 1000 J/kg, cannot totally
rule out a strong to severe wind gust, but the chance is quite low
(<5%).

Additional precipitation potential Wednesday through Saturday

Flow aloft becomes northwesterly Tuesday with guidance in good
agreement this should continue through Thursday night. While Tuesday
looks to remain free of precipitation due to warm temperatures at
850mb, both Wednesday and Thursday may feature additional showers
and thunderstorms as shortwaves eject downstream. Quick advancing
upper ridge should slide east of the CWA by Friday afternoon so the
precip chances don`t look to take another break as flow aloft become
southwesterly once again for Friday and Saturday. 700/850mb flow
during this period is favored to bring additional moisture to the
region from the south and southwest so a noticeable uptick in precip
coverage compared to Wednesday and Thursday is a good bet - have
stuck with NBM PoPs since they largely reflect this.

As for severe thunderstorm potential, no days stand out at this time
as carrying a notable risk. Friday and Saturday clearly carry the
best potential for large amounts of CAPE given the low level moist
advection but southwesterly flow aloft may be relatively modest and
thus limit shear. Given overall pattern leaning toward multiple days
with decidedly low end severe potential, will need to wait to see
how finer scale details shake out to nail down severe risks each day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Conditions range from VFR to LIFR depending on your location
this morning. Many locations across the Mississippi and
Wisconsin river valleys are seeing some dense fog developing
with LIFR CIGs and MVFR to LIFR visibilities. Locations outside
of these river valleys have been seeing more transient fog as
northwest winds begin to pick up, especially across southeastern
Minnesota. This fog should burn off rather quickly this morning
with conditions likely improving between 13-14Z. VFR conditions
are then expected to prevail for the rest of the period. As
previously mentioned, west/northwest winds are beginning to pick
up with this trend continuing areawide by late morning/early
afternoon. The RST terminal could see some gusts around 20 kts
this afternoon before winds come down during the evening as the
nighttime inversion sets up.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Barendse